The preliminary findings from the EU-ETS Observatory show an unusual spike in vessel activity (or 'traffic') at ports situated in close proximity to the EU.

• This data from the EU-ETS Observatory refers to ports in the United Kingdom and the Mediterranean.

• The objective of this work is to detect carbon leakage and analyze the potential loss of traffic for Spanish ports derived from the application of the EU's pollutant emission charges to maritime transport.

   

16-12-2025 (State Ports Public Body - Organismo Público Puertos del Estado). Puertos del Estado has presented the initial findings of the Observatory commissioned to measure the impact of the EU-ETS (European Union Emission Trade System) on the state-owned port system. These preliminary data reveal an unusual increase in activity at non-EU ports located in close proximity to Europe, such as those situated in the United Kingdom—in Northern Europe—and in Egypt and Turkey—in the Mediterranean.

The Observatory, developed by Shipping Business Consultant (SBC) in collaboration with the Center for Transport Innovation (CENIT) and Nextport, has the mission of detecting potential carbon leakage and disruptions to transshipment traffic at ports subject to the EU-ETS, which mandates that shipping companies calling at European ports pay for their atmospheric emissions based on the vessel's capacity and the route traveled.

Based on this premise, the Observatory is analyzing indicators such as the number of calls, distance traveled, emissions... drawn from data platforms, AIS (Automatic Identification System), etc., at a broad regional level (the European Union and surrounding countries), as well as in specific areas within that level where changes are detected. Conditioning factors are also taken into account, such as the Red Sea crisis, which forced shipping companies to change routes, and the breakdown of traditional alliances between carriers.

In the case of the United Kingdom, an increase in port activity is observed (measured in TEU-mile: the vessel's capacity in TEUs multiplied by the distance traveled) that does not correspond to reasons such as a significant increase in economic activity, a reduction in operating costs, or congestion issues in neighboring European ports.

The analysis reveals that most shipping companies are developing strategies that prioritize the United Kingdom in their routes more than they did previously, a decision that does not appear to be driven by changes in British infrastructure.

In the case of the Mediterranean, the same trend is observed in ports in Egypt and Turkey when compared to European ports: a sharp increase in both the capacity of docked vessels and the distance they have traveled.

The purpose of the Observatory is to warn about evasive practices that have already occurred or that may occur so that it is possible to anticipate them; but also to support decision-making ahead of the scheduled revision of the EU-ETS Directive itself, including the definition of preventive or corrective measures.

In the context of the fight against climate change, in December 2022, it was agreed to extend the European Union Emission Trade System (EU ETS) to maritime transport. As a result, shipping companies must acquire allowances for the greenhouse gas emissions released into the atmosphere, which are reported following the protocol defined by EU Regulation 2015/757.

Throughout the processing of this legislative initiative and since its entry into force on January 1, 2024, Spain, through the Ministry of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, which oversees Puertos del Estado, has led the analysis and warnings within the EU regarding the potential negative effects of this regulation concerning route diversion and the delocalization of maritime traffic centers toward ports in third countries where this environmental regulation is not applied. Among the risks to port competitiveness, the loss of strategic traffic for Europe, logistical delocalization, the decrease in maritime connectivity—which leads to a loss of logistical sovereignty—and the increase in operating costs are noteworthy, without forgetting that the intended effect of reducing carbon emissions will not be achieved if shipping companies choose to operate in non-European, but neighboring, ports.